ANALYSIS

Could ICE sales phase out by themselves?

Despite ongoing debate and campaigning for the 2030 ICE ban to be pushed back, declining ICE demand will deliver EV switch by 2028, new research reckons. Natalie Middleton checks it out

Sales of new petrol and diesel cars could fade out before the Government’s 2030 target, due to dwindling driver demand, new – and contentious – research suggests.

According to independent transport research organisation New AutoMotive, consumers will effectively end the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2028/29, based on the current trajectory. This is ahead of the 2030 deadline after which only EVs and hybrids that can travel a “significant distance” in zero-emissions mode will be allowed.

New AutoMotive said latest data from its Electric Car Count showed petrol car registrations shed 8 percentage points of market share in July as electric car registrations grew by 90%. This continues a long-term decline in the popularity of petrol since 2019, when they accounted for 65% of all new cars. Registrations of diesel cars have collapsed from their peak of 50% in 2016.

Researchers added that competitive leasing deals on electric cars are likely to have driven a c.90% jump in electric car registrations in July. Charging availability is also improving rapidly; Zapmap data shows that the number of ultra-rapid charge points almost doubled in the 12 months to July 2023. These developments are likely to be behind growing consumer appetite to go electric, with 54% of drivers now saying that they are considering going electric, according to EY’s latest Mobility Consumer Index.

The research has been published after new data showed one EV was registered every 60 seconds in July. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, more than 23,000 were registered last month – an 87.9% increase compared to the same period last year.

It’s in stark contrast to campaigns by mainstream media and right-wing MPs for the 2030 date to be pushed back, and rising concerns that the upcoming ZEV mandate could be watered down.

Ben Nelmes, chief executive of New AutoMotive, said: “Debate about the Government’s 2030 target is starting to look academic. Consumers have all but ended the sale of diesel cars already and are increasingly shunning petrol cars.

“Remarkably, despite a recovery in the car market, sales of petrol cars remain in a long-term decline and are still around half of their pre-pandemic peak. Consumers are voting with their wallets and showing that they prefer to go electric.

“The biggest thing preventing more people getting in an electric car remains the supply of vehicles – ministers can fix this by introducing an ambitious ZEV mandate that starts in 2024.”

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Consumers will effectively end the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2028/29, based on the current trajectory

Lords Select Committee launches inquiry into electric vehicles

The House of Lords Environment and Climate Change Committee has also waded into the debate, launching an inquiry into electric vehicles to explore how the Government will achieve its 2030 ICE phase-out plans and the barriers to doing so.

The inquiry, which is open to drivers, businesses and local authorities amongst others, will explore the costs and benefits of the UK’s plans to end all sales of new petrol and diesel cars and vans in the UK by 2030 and ensure all new cars and vans are “fully zero emission at the tailpipe” by 2035.

The committee is now seeking evidence in the following topic areas:

The Government’s approach to achieving 2030 and 2035 phase-out dates
The EV market and acquiring an EV
Experience of using an EV
End-of-life disposal of EVs
National and regional infrastructure and charging issues
International perspectives.

Baroness Kate Parminter, chair of the Environment and Climate Change Committee, said: “The rubber is now hitting the road – as we can’t get to net zero without individuals making changes to our lives, how we travel and what we buy. Using EVs for passenger transport will be a part of that and the Government has committed to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030.

“We want to hear from the public about their experience of acquiring and using EVs in the UK, and the barriers to doing so. We also want to find out from industry, local authorities, and all others with an interest in decarbonising transport, what the Government needs to do to encourage greater take-up of EVs ahead of their 2030 and 2035 targets.”