ANALYSIS
Can’t wait, won’t wait
The Labour government is pushing ahead with its manifesto commitment to reinstate the 2030 phase-out for new ICE cars but not everyone has welcomed the move. By Natalie Middleton
The end date for new ICE vehicle sales looks set to revert to 2030 from 2035, according to the new Labour administration. The confirmation was announced in national online outlets and subsequently backed by comments from a Department for Transport (DfT) spokesperson. The DfT also confirmed its official comment to Fleet World, saying: “We’re committed to delivering greener transport by supporting the transition to electric vehicles.
“This includes phasing out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 and accelerating the rollout of charge points. We will set out more details in due course.”
Plans for hybrid vehicles and the impact on the ZEV mandate have not been revealed.
The move follows the former Conservative government’s row back on the ICE phase-out, which pushed the end date for sales of new fossil fuel cars and vans back to 2035. This was followed by the January 2024 launch of the ZEV mandate, which reinforced the 2035 end date with increasingly stringent EV sales quotas on manufacturers.
Party pledge promise
Labour’s plans to restore the 2030 phase-out date following an election win were first touted by former shadow roads minister Bill Esterson at a meeting held by electric vehicle trade group Recharge UK.
This announcement was followed by the party’s election manifesto, which pledged to restore the 2030 ICE phase-out for cars – but not vans – in a move to speed up the transition to electric vehicles. Labour said it would be backed by accelerating charge point rollout and supporting buyers of second-hand electric cars by standardising the information supplied on the condition of batteries.
Speaking to the Fast Charge EV newsletter last month, Esterson, who’s running to be chair of the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee, explained the rationale for reinstating 2030.
“The calculation that was done for us as a party demonstrated that delaying five years cost drivers tens of billions of pounds in higher fuel costs. That was why we made that decision.”
The BVRLA also says it’s received confirmation that the Government remains committed to phasing out new cars that rely solely on internal combustion engines by 2030. The timeline for vans remains unclear.
The rental and leasing body expects a formal consultation process to open in late September or early October – and says there is a desire within government to have the consultation complete and changes confirmed before the end of 2024, giving a tight window for everything to take place.
A report earlier this summer by the Climate Change Committee said the UK must reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales to reach a critical net zero goal. Analysis by the UK’s independent adviser on tackling climate change indicated that the UK market share of fully electric vehicles – not including plug-in hybrids – out of all new vehicles sold needed to increase from 16.5% for cars and 5.9% for vans in 2023 to between 80% and 100% for cars and between 70% and 100% for vans by 2030.
Party pledge promise
Labour’s plans to restore the 2030 phase-out date following an election win were first touted by former shadow roads minister Bill Esterson at a meeting held by electric vehicle trade group Recharge UK.
This announcement was followed by the party’s election manifesto, which pledged to restore the 2030 ICE phase-out for cars – but not vans – in a move to speed up the transition to electric vehicles. Labour said it would be backed by accelerating charge point rollout and supporting buyers of second-hand electric cars by standardising the information supplied on the condition of batteries.
Speaking to the Fast Charge EV newsletter last month, Esterson, who’s running to be chair of the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee, explained the rationale for reinstating 2030.
“The calculation that was done for us as a party demonstrated that delaying five years cost drivers tens of billions of pounds in higher fuel costs. That was why we made that decision.”
The BVRLA also says it’s received confirmation that the Government remains committed to phasing out new cars that rely solely on internal combustion engines by 2030. The timeline for vans remains unclear.
The rental and leasing body expects a formal consultation process to open in late September or early October – and says there is a desire within government to have the consultation complete and changes confirmed before the end of 2024, giving a tight window for everything to take place.
A report earlier this summer by the Climate Change Committee said the UK must reinstate the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales to reach a critical net zero goal. Analysis by the UK’s independent adviser on tackling climate change indicated that the UK market share of fully electric vehicles – not including plug-in hybrids – out of all new vehicles sold needed to increase from 16.5% for cars and 5.9% for vans in 2023 to between 80% and 100% for cars and between 70% and 100% for vans by 2030.
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Plans for hybrid vehicles and the impact on the ZEV mandate have not been revealed
‘Major risk’ of phase-out targets
The fleet sector understandably has major concerns about another likely change to the ICE ban.
The BVRLA has said a 2030 phase-out target for banning new ICE van sales is unachievable, while the same target for cars is a major risk unless the Government matches its ambitious targets with additional support measures.
Gerry Keaney, chief executive, elaborated: “The ZEV mandate timetable and 2030 phase-out target for cars present a major risk unless we see much greater government support to stimulate new and used BEV demand and better charging infrastructure.”
The BVRLA via its involvement with the Zero Emission Van Plan has been spotlighting the challenges facing electric van adoption with industry and government.
“When it comes to electric van adoption, the lack of suitable BEV LCV product in – or about to hit – the UK market means the fleet sector will not be able to reach a 2030 phase-out target,” added Keaney.
Like the BVRLA, FleetCheck has spoken out about the significant practical issues with eLCV rollout faced by fleet operators.
Peter Golding, managing director at the fleet software specialist, said: “While electric car adoption by fleets has generally been a considerable success and the 2030 phase-out is absolutely viable, almost the opposite is true of electric vans.
“Compromises over range, payload and charging times mean that fleet sales of new electric vans are struggling to rise above 5% and there appears to be limited prospects of this changing dramatically unless that is some kind of unforeseen paradigm shift.”
Golding added that fleet experiences had shown that electric van use for anything other than local, light duty work was questionable and any change to the diesel van ban could leave fleets in an “impossible” situation.
The Association of Fleet Professionals (AFP) was more sanguine about a change to the ICE car ban.
Paul Hollick, chair of the industry body, said: “There’s an argument that Rishi Sunak moving the ban from 2030 to 2035 was performative politics and that what Keir Starmer is now doing by returning it to 2030 is very similar.
“The fact is that the policy which is having a genuine day-to-day impact on the rate at which electrification will occur, and will similarly have the largest effect on the decline of ICE, is the ZEV mandate.
“Really, the 2030 ban has limited relevance compared to the production ratios of EV to ICE that the ZEV mandate stipulates through to the end of the decade. The 2030 debate is also something of a distraction from the reality that what the EV market needs is simply cheaper cars and vans. They are the key to adoption.”
ChargeUK meanwhile was positive about the outlook for EV charger rollout to support take-up.
Vicky Read, CEO of the industry body for charger operators, commented: “With a public charger being installed every 25 minutes and the rollout of infrastructure continuing to increase ahead of demand, the charging industry is currently on track to deliver what drivers need to switch to an EV.
“However, to help deliver the infrastructure needed for a cleaner transport future in either date scenario, the industry needs a supportive environment to keep going at this pace,” she added. “Certainty from the Government about 2030, but also about the ZEV mandate, which remains a critical enabler of charge point investment, positivity about the transition in messaging to consumers, and barriers to deployment and investment removed.”
