Peter McDonald
The shift to electric vehicles has generated plenty of discussion about the best and worst approaches. Now, the former fleet director adds his opinion into the mix.
Transitioning fleets and the general car-consuming public to EVs is one of the hottest discussion points in the industry. All members of the automotive value chain have evidenced the need to become EV experts.
There will be all sorts of competing alternative perspectives on the transition and, inevitably, not every forecast will be right. Forecasting has got a lot more difficult; we’ve seen the impact of previously unforeseen black swan events such as coronavirus and the financial crisis etc – so predicting the future is near impossible.
While there will be a wide variety of impacts on customers moving to EVs, two big issues have been over-played in the media. They are also potentially causing consumers to delay the switch.
CHARGER NUMBERS AND NETWORKS
The ability to fuel an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) on the go is incredibly important – filling up with fuel is an inconvenience. Therefore, we only fill an ICE up when it’s close to empty. I believe we over-weight the importance of using on-the-go charging for EVs, because that’s the lens from which we charge an ICE vehicle today.
Many houses can take a home charger and it will always be the cheapest and most convenient for the driver.
Going forwards, energy providers and legislators will be nudging customers to lengthen the time in which the battery is plugged in, so the car can be charged when it’s optimum for the grid – and therefore the lowest CO2 and most sustainable solution. The best-use case is vehicles plugged into residential power supply. Drivers can easily charge overnight, leaving for their commutes on full charge and, with bigger vehicle battery sizes coming, the need for regular on-the-go charging will be reduced.
Public charging is already much more widely available than it was years ago. We are right to identify that not all consumers can charge at home, particularly those without off-street parking or shared parking. And leasehold properties will need infrastructure – going forwards, this is where the government incentives are concentrated to overcome these issues. While the early adopters for EVs are company car drivers seeking lower BiK tax and who cover considerable commuter miles, the average distance driven a day by the total UK car market is only 20 miles. Most people will charge at home and use the public infrastructure only when they take longer journeys, which, by their nature, are infrequent.
So, the big under-played point will be the type of residential charging we do and the type of hardware we utilise and how it enables use cases around energy cost and CO2 density.
Two big issues have been over-played in the media. They are also potentially causing consumers to delay the switch.
ICE vehicles are convenient to manage today because there’s an expansive network of fuel stations, service centres, trained technicians and parts supply to fix them when they go wrong. They are also still relatively welcome in city centres, but that’s unlikely to be the case going forwards because city mandates will be introduced to reduce carbon emissions, taxes will be punitive, or ICE vehicles will potentially be banned in full.
With reduced need for on-the-go fuel and with less demand for complex ICE service and maintenance, many of these ‘service’ organisations will reduce investment in facilities and people. They will scale their businesses accordingly. Fewer fuel stations, technicians and parts means it’s quite possible that ICE will take longer to schedule in and take longer to fix. Meanwhile, the reduction in fuel stations will make journeys more difficult and require drivers to fill more regularly to reduce anxiety.
The change will be accelerated for those businesses operating in convenient central locations, who will find it even more difficult to function. That means the convenience factor disappears – it’s quite possible we’ll be ‘going out of town’ to get cars fuelled and serviced. As there will be fewer and fewer ICE on the road by the day, it’s quite probable that these changes will accelerate at pace, at the same time as EVs will get much easier.
Peter McDonald is mobility director at Ohme. Prior to his current role, he spent two decades working for automotive manufacturers including Nissan, SEAT and the wider Volkswagen Group.
