Peter McDonald
The past 12 months have brought a lot of progress and positivity for the EV manufacturers and drivers. Looking ahead, there’s a lot more hard work to be done in 2024 – and beyond
On the face of things, it’s been a bumper year for EVs. At the time of writing, their sales have just enjoyed their 42nd consecutive month of growth, up more than 34% on 2022.
The same is true of their market share too, which is up to 16.3% so far this year – although this has slowed somewhat from the 14.6% for the same period in 2022. Any celebrations will need to be put on ice in the knowledge that that same figure needs to be at 22% for manufacturers to meet their ZEV Mandate targets at the end of 2024. Sobering news indeed as we prepare to enter a new year.
But, if you thought that the 2024 ZEV Mandate for cars was going to be a steep hill to scale, the news for LCVs looks like tackling the north face of the Eiger in flip-flops. The good news is that sales of e-LCVs are 19.8% up on 2022, but the bad news is that their market share has remained static from last year at 5.5%.
Some more good news is that the ZEV Mandate targets aren’t as stringent for LCVs as they are for cars.
But here’s the really bad news – they may not be as stringent but, at 10% for 2024, they’re almost double today’s figures. They then jump to 16% for 2025 and 24% for 2024, which is daunting.
So how do manufacturers kick-start growth in the eLCV market? The problem spreads wider and further than you might think, too. While larger fleet operators can switch to electric with their ability to leverage their size, resources and commitments and wider corporate remits, smaller fleets and single vehicle contractors might struggle.
A lot has to do with confidence breeding confidence. The current downturn in the property market doesn’t just affect house builders (of all sizes), it also affects those smaller contractors, too. If those single plumbers, electricians or plasterers don’t feel confident in their ability to get future work, then they won’t buy a new van and they certainly won’t take a (perceived) gamble with the relatively unknown quantity of an electric van.
Even if the driver in question remains on the standard electricity tariff, the savings on running costs over petrol, and especially diesel, will be significant
A problem shared
This isn’t just a UK-centric problem either. Sales of eLCVs across the EU have nearly doubled in volume with a 91.4% increase, albeit a market share of 7.3% - so that not much ahead of the UK. However, the biggest gains for eLCV were in the first and third largest markets, France and the Netherlands, where the gains were a staggering 102.2% and 136.8% respectively.
While France’s eLCV market is clearly growing faster than here in the UK, that market still isn’t alone to the issues that the UK market has faced as well. So can we learn anything from their same issues abroad? I recently spoke to Johan Lozac’h, an e-mobility and electric van expert based in France, who has past experience with BMW’s i project range and, most recently, with Volta.
“If we want to make the wider transition to eLCVs in mainland Europe, we need to stop talking up the constraints and start talking up the positive sides,” Lozac’h said. “When a fleet first integrates eLCVs into its fleet, the driver feedback is generally positive. It’s more comfortable, the acceleration is smooth and they love the lack of noise – a big factor for a driver constantly behind the wheel.
“The fleet manager obviously needs to look at the driving range of a vehicle as well as charging at a depot or at an employee’s home, but the upsides are the greater uptime with less servicing and less moving parts to go wrong,” continued Lozac’h.
“As more people start to drive electric cars in their private lives, there’s a good chance that those initial, smaller, worries and concerns such as charging anxiety and how to use and find public chargers, will start to diminish.”
So while some of the hurdles to wider eLCV adoption will fall away naturally, others will need some persuasion either through costs, legislation or otherwise. A more progressive attitude to charging will need to be included within that as well, whether that’s at a depot, on the road or even at an employee’s home – the latter of which we, at Ohme, can assist with with our fleet portal systems and our ability to link with other software.
The wider acceptance of eLCVs by fleet managers and drivers alike will only be a success if the transition is made as easy and as smooth as possible. And, for now, at least, that will be the biggest challenge facing the future of both car and eLCV fleets alike.
Peter McDonald is mobility director at Ohme. Prior to his current role, he spent two decades working for automotive manufacturers including Nissan, SEAT and the wider Volkswagen Group.
